After their emphatic 5–2 victory over Chelsea at the Parc des Princes, Paris Saint-Germain have taken a very strong step toward qualifying for the Champions League quarterfinals. The statistics heavily favor the Parisians ahead of the return leg.
PSG are almost through. With a three-goal advantage, Paris Saint-Germain travel to Stamford Bridge with a comfortable lead following their convincing first-leg performance. However, there are still 90 minutes left to play. To turn the tie around, Chelsea would need to score at least three goals without conceding.
PSG’s painful history of Champions League comebacks
On paper, the numbers strongly support PSG. Data published by several specialized platforms such as Opta, Football Rankings and Football Meets Data indicate that Paris now have around a 93% chance of qualifying before the second leg. Still, PSG fans know that a comfortable advantage has not always guaranteed success in the past.
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The most famous example remains the historic 2017 clash with Barcelona. After crushing the Spanish side 4–0 in the first leg, PSG collapsed at Camp Nou and lost 6–1, conceding three goals in the final minutes. Barcelona advanced 6–5 on aggregate in one of the most dramatic comebacks in Champions League history.
Other painful memories include the 2019 elimination against Manchester United and the 2022 collapse against Real Madrid, where Karim Benzema’s rapid hat-trick overturned the tie. PSG will therefore need to finish the job in London. If they qualify, Luis Enrique’s side will face the winner of the Liverpool vs Galatasaray matchup, with the Turkish club currently holding a slight 1–0 advantage after the first leg.
