Last week was very difficult for French clubs. Beaten by Sporting (2–1), PSG nevertheless remain in a good position ahead of the final matchday. Thanks in particular to an excellent goal difference, Paris are still in the top eight, which means direct qualification for the round of 16. By contrast, Monaco (1–6 against Real Madrid) and Marseille (0–3 against Liverpool) are almost with their backs to the wall and will have to win to keep hoping.
For PSG, however, nothing is settled yet. The standings are extremely tight and several scenarios are possible before the match against Newcastle, with only a small margin separating many teams around the qualifying places.
What PSG Needs Against Newcastle
Paris will be directly qualified for the round of 16 if they beat Newcastle and at least four of the following nine teams fail to win: Real Madrid (against Benfica), Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, Barcelona, Sporting CP, Manchester City, Atlético de Madrid, and Atalanta. If PSG draw with Newcastle, qualification is still possible provided Dortmund and Inter draw, or Dortmund beat Inter by fewer than six goals, and at least five of these teams do not win: Tottenham, Chelsea, Barcelona, Sporting CP, Manchester City, Atlético de Madrid, Atalanta, and Juventus.
Still in the case of a draw, if Inter beat Dortmund or if Dortmund beat Inter by more than six goals, Paris would then need at least six of the teams mentioned above not to win. In the event of a defeat against Newcastle, PSG would have to hope not to be overtaken by more than two teams behind them in the standings, with Newcastle necessarily moving ahead. In short, PSG still control their destiny but no longer have any room for error, while Monaco and Marseille are clearly playing for their European survival.
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