Matvey Safonov gave a rather original answer when asked about Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s chances of winning the 2026 Ballon d’Or. According to the PSG goalkeeper, his Georgian teammate has exactly… a 3.33% chance of lifting the trophy. And that number was clearly not chosen at random.
Safonov has a thing for mathematics. Currently away with the Russian national team, the goalkeeper spoke to Sport-Express and was asked about the Ballon d’Or and the many PSG players among the nominees. Refusing to pick a favourite among his teammates, the Russian explained that he could make a case for each of them. When journalists then asked him what percentage chance he would give Kvaratskhelia, Safonov immediately replied: “3.33%.”
Safonov Does the Math for Kvaratskhelia
The answer is actually quite easy to explain. There are 30 players nominated for the Ballon d’Or. If, purely theoretically, every player had exactly the same chance of winning, each would have a one-in-30 chance — or 3.33%. Of course, this is not a genuine assessment of Kvaratskhelia’s chances: the voting is not random and the 30 nominees do not all have identical probabilities of winning.
But the response is very much in keeping with Safonov’s personality. The Russian goalkeeper is known for his interest in mathematics and chess. L’Équipe previously highlighted his passion for the game, which he practised twice a week during his development at Krasnodar, where chess was used to improve strategy and anticipation.
It was a very personal way for Safonov to avoid choosing between his teammates while slipping in a little mathematical demonstration. Kvaratskhelia is indeed one of the 30 nominees for the 2026 Ballon d’Or and has a major argument in his favour: he was named the best player of the most recent Champions League campaign.
