The race for the 2026 Ballon d’Or has taken a dramatic turn. Following the elimination of France and England in the FIFA World Cup semi-finals, Lionel Messi and Lamine Yamal have emerged as the two overwhelming favorites for football’s most prestigious individual award.
According to the latest prediction market trends from Polymarket, Messi now leads the race with a 31.7% chance of winning, while Yamal sits just behind him at 30.9%. With Argentina set to face Spain in the World Cup final, the showdown could effectively determine who takes home the Ballon d’Or.
The World Cup Final Could Decide the Ballon d’Or
The final now looks like a direct battle for the award. An Argentina victory would significantly strengthen Messi’s case after another outstanding tournament with the Albiceleste. On the other hand, if Spain lifts the trophy, Yamal could complete a remarkable campaign by adding a World Cup title to his sensational breakout year. These figures are not official rankings, however, as Polymarket’s odds are based on prediction markets and can change quickly as expectations evolve.
The biggest losers are Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, and Harry Kane. Mbappé had been considered one of the leading contenders before France’s semi-final defeat, while Dembélé’s impressive season has also lost momentum. England’s elimination dealt a similar blow to Kane’s hopes. With Messi and Yamal still competing for the World Cup title, the winner of Sunday’s final could gain a decisive edge in the race for the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
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