The 2026 World Cup is getting serious, and Opta has already pulled out the crystal ball. After the group stage, the famous statistical model places France at the very top of the list of favorites to win the world title.
France against Argentina… Kylian Mbappé and his teammates have been waiting four years for their revenge. And according to the numbers, they are going to get it. Based on Opta’s projections, built on 25,000 simulations of the rest of the tournament, Les Bleus have an 18.7% chance of lifting the World Cup. France are ahead of Argentina, still very solid with a 16.3% chance of going all the way.
A 2022 Rematch on Everyone’s Mind
One scenario is already making fans dream: a France-Argentina final, four years after the absolutely wild 2022 clash in Qatar. It would be a massive revenge mission for Les Bleus, who were beaten on penalties at the end of a final that went down in history.
Mbappé against Argentina, Act II? The match would obviously have all the ingredients of a global blockbuster. In 2022, France came close to an impossible comeback before falling to Messi and the Albiceleste. In 2026, the statistics are already imagining the possibility of another showdown at the very top.
Behind the two big favorites, Spain remain in the hunt. La Roja complete the podium with a 13.5% chance of being crowned champions, confirming their status as a very serious contender. Portugal, England and the United States appear a little further behind in the projections. Now it remains to be seen whether Opta got it right, because one thing is certain: if France and Argentina meet again in the final, world football will get a fiery rematch.
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