Kylian Mbappé is gaining the upper hand in the Ballon d’Or race. According to the latest trends observed on Polymarket, the France captain is now considered the favorite ahead of Harry Kane, Ousmane Dembélé and Lionel Messi.
Who will win the Ballon d’Or this year? In 2025, there was not really much debate, but this year is different. Carried by a very high-level 2026 World Cup, Mbappé has seen his odds rise at the perfect time. The prediction markets platform now places the French forward in the lead with a 28% chance, ahead of Harry Kane, who is credited with 25%.
Mbappé Takes Control Of The Ballon d’Or Race
Behind them, Ousmane Dembélé remains well placed in the race. The French winger, who has enjoyed a strong season, stands at 15% according to Polymarket trends. But his captain with Les Bleus has clearly moved one step ahead thanks to his major impact during the World Cup.
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Lionel Messi completes this quartet with 13%. That figure shows the Argentine is still in the conversation, even if the current momentum appears more favorable to the French internationals. However, it should be remembered that Polymarket is not an official Ballon d’Or ranking. It is a prediction markets platform based on users’ bets and expectations.
But the trend is clear: Mbappé has taken control, while Dembélé remains in contention for football’s ultimate individual award.
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